Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Redskins gearing up for another offseason of horizontal moves

Today’s report from Jason La Canfora at NFL Network that the Redskins may be firing up Redskins One in preparation for a record showing at the beginning of NFL free agency isn’t really breaking news. I think most insiders around the league expect the team to be active this offseason, considering the combination of a large pool of free agents and numerous needs for the Redskins across the board. However, the list that La Canfora offered was a little puzzling. For years, fans have been clamoring for a big receiver to complement Santana Moss (who is a free agent in his own right), and so the Redskins answer to that is…Santonio Holmes? Last year, the Redskins clearly were trying to plug square pegs into round holes with their transition to the 3-4. So the Redskins answer is to sign Kris Jenkins and/or Barry Cofield, two defensive tackles who have played the majority of their careers as penetrating 3-techniques in a 4-3? Haven’t we already tried to turn a 4-3 tackle into a 3-4 nose (I’m sure there was someone…)? The remainder of the list makes sense (Marshall Yanda would be a huge upgrade at guard, as would Cullen Jenkins as a starting end opposite Adam Carriker). The potential re-signing of Rex Grossman should surprise no one, and the news that the team will pursue Philip Buchanon to play opposite DeAngelo Hall (instead of blindly turning the starting job over to the unproven Kevin Barnes) is encouraging.

However, haven’t we seen this movie before? The Redskins, facing needs at numerous positions, spend and overpay in free agency, burying us underneath the cap? Look, I think the Redskins need to spend some money this offseason, because otherwise they are facing the possibility of being just dreadful. However, with the team not drafting a quarterback (which I think was a smart move, given the talent available where they were picking), it almost sends a signal that this is going to be a rebuilding year. If you’re going into the season with the tandem of Grossman and Beck under center, you can’t realistically have your expectations set at much more than being .500 (and even that is with your Redskins goggles on). So why go out and spend all this money, as if you were one piece away from a championship? To me it just sends mixed signals. It’s like the team is hedging its bets, something it has done well for the past ten years, a main cause of their continued mediocrity. How about for once, you take your lumps? Realize that the previous however many head coaches have dug the team a hole. Plug in a few players that you can get at a decent value, and take your 4-12 beating this year. I know it’ll be tough for the fans, but it has to be done. Look at the Capitals. They were dreadful for a couple of years, before getting the No. 1 overall pick, and rebuilding around that player. Now I don’t have to tell you Redskins fans that there is a pretty good option there in next year’s draft. Why not take that route? It’s starting to show results for the Nationals, who have suddenly become a feisty, competitive squad with loads of young talent on the way. The Wizards are trying to do the same around John Wall and several other talented young players. Heck, at this point, we might as well call this strategy the “D.C. Blueprint.” Step 1: Become an embarrassment to your league for a couple of years. Step 2: Select once-in-a-generation talent with the No. 1 overall pick (alright, classifying Wall in that category may be a stretch, but work with me). Step 3: Continue to add young pieces in future drafts, accumulating draft picks, and using this influx of talent to acquire more assets. Step 4 (which we may be seeing now with the Capitals): add select grizzled veterans to give the team the proverbial “edge” necessary to win come crunch-time. Step 5: Victory Parade!

If I were to classify each of our teams, I would say the Capitals are in Step 4, the Nationals and Wizards are in Step 3 (with the Nationals significantly further along), and the Redskins are in continued denial that they aren’t near Step 5. It’s sad, because if someone could just fax them a copy of this blueprint, they could easily be in Step 3 by 2013. But instead, we Redskins fans will have to settle for one exciting day when free agency opens. Enjoy it, because it may just be the best day of the year for Redskins fans. Unless of course we beat Dallas. Then that trumps everything.

Saturday, July 9, 2011

Espinosa becoming the reason to watch the Nats

Right before our eyes Danny Espinosa is becoming not only an all-star worthy player, but also the most exciting player on the Nationals. Is he the best player on the Nats or the face of the franchise? No, that moniker will remain with Ryan Zimmerman for the foreseeable future (despite the many attempts to remove pass on that title to Strasburg, Werth and, soon, Bryce Harper). Is he the most expensive player on the Nats roster? No, and I think we all know who will have that title for the foreseeable future. But Espinosa is the kind of player that could easily become the most popular player on the Nats. He plays the game the right ways. He hits the long home runs (everyone loves dingers!), makes incredible defensive plays and is aggressive on the basepaths (despite Davey Johnson’s best efforts). Frankly, I think it’s a travesty that he hasn’t been named to the all-star team yet, especially with the litany of “injury” replacements that are now coming out. Until Strasburg returns and brings his record crowds with him, or until Harper is called up and starts hitting moonshot home runs, the reason to watch the Nats is Espinosa.

For the future though, the question remains where Espinosa will finally settle. Given his performance this year, I don’t think it’s out of the question to consider Espinosa a potential perennial all-star at second base. But would the Nationals be better served moving him to shortstop? He certainly has the arm to be able to play shortstop. He played shortstop for almost all of his time in the minors, so it’s not like he hasn’t played the position in a while. Every Nats fan recognizes that, after a promising first season, Ian Desmond’s production has fallen off precipitously. And Anthony Rendon should move fast through the minor leagues, assuming he can get fully healthy after some shoulder troubles this past season at Rice. I would argue that you don’t mess with a good thing. You certainly don’t move Espinosa until Rendon is banging down the door. I think that Espinosa’s power/defensive combination is rare to find at second base, and the Nationals would be doing them and Espinosa a disservice if they moved him. Besides, maybe Ian Desmond will get things turned around soon (uhhhh…but don’t hold your breath on that one).

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Caps make solid additions in wild start to free agency

I know this is a bit late by now, but I think the Capitals did really well in their flurry of deals at the start of free agency. I realize that isn’t the boldest statement, as there has been almost uniform praise for GM George McPhee after his few days of wheeling and dealing. But honestly, looking at the moves very objectively, I can poke a few holes, but that’s about it.

Let’s start with the trade of Semyon Varlamov. At first glance, I wasn’t a huge fan of this trade, as I think Varlamov is the most talented of the Caps’ goalies. I think that he could easily develop into an all-star goalie with the Avalanche, provided he stays healthy. He has got the talent to be that true No. 1 goalie that a team needs come playoff-time. However, upon further examination, I recognized that the Avalanche were REALLY bad last year. As in, they had the second-worst record in the league. So getting a first-round pick from them could net a top-five pick next year for the Caps. Not only would this be a huge asset if they were to keep the pick, but impressive trade bait for the deadline next year. You can build a deal for a big star (and now I’m talking about a Brad Richards-type player, not a Dennis Wideman-type player) around that pick at the deadline and maybe put the team over the edge. Besides, if Varlamov went to Russia and the KHL, the Caps would have been stuck with no compensation. Now they got two premium draft picks for the young Russian goalie. Good trade.

In more goalie news, I like the Tomas Vokoun signing, strictly based on the value that they paid. Any time you can get a goalie of Vokoun’s stature for backup goalie money (they got Vokoun for a fraction more than they were reported to be offering Varlamov), it’s a good deal. But that’s just from a collecting assets perspective. I’m not sure how exactly he fits in to the team’s plans next year. Is he the undisputed No. 1 entering the season? Is it another time-share with Neuvirth? If so, is this just another Varlamov-Theodore situation? There’s also the issue that this isn’t a playoff-tested veteran. Vokoun has played most of his years on bad teams. Now he has put up impressive numbers over that stretch, which is certainly admirable. But Vokoun is still something of an unknown come crunch time. And clearly some players just can’t come through in the clutch (as we have seen in the past two postseasons). Maybe they develop that skill over time, but Vokoun is already 35. How much time does he have to adjust to playoff hockey?

Not a big fan of the Joel Ward signing. McPhee even acknowledged that the team overpaid pretty significantly for Ward. I’d be okay if this were an established veteran, but if you look at Ward’s track record, he was basically a career minor leaguer until a couple of years ago. Then he burst onto the scene and, to his credit, he has had three solid seasons with the Predators and a couple of successful postseasons. He is another bigger, grittier player, which seems to be a theme for the Caps this offseason after the early acquisition of Troy Brouwer. But consider me a skeptic in giving a player with sucha limited track record this amount of money.

Roman Hamrlik is a solid addition as a veteran defenseman, who can do a little bit of everything. In the Caps defense corps, he will probably fill a stay-at-home defenseman role, but that’s not to say he is incompetent with the puck on his stick (looking at you Jeff Schultz). There has already been talk about pairing Hamrlik with Mike Green, which could be a dynamite combination. Green has been searching for a partner for most of his career. Clearly the Jeff Schultz partnership wasn’t ideal. I think Hamrlik’s veteran presence might just be the right fit.

Suddenly, Washington’s blue line is very crowded. I think you can pencil Green, Hamrlik, Alzner, Carlson and Wideman into the top-five. That leaves one spot in the lineup and maybe one more spot on the roster for a group that includes John Erskine, Tom Poti, Scott Hannan (although the odds that he is brought back fell precipitously once Hamrlik was signed) and top prospect Dmitri Orlov. If I had to guess, I would say Erskine gets the nod as the last defenseman on the squad.

It might have gone under the radar, but the signing of Jeff Halpern is a good one. He basically replaces Boyd Gordon, who might be younger and more talented at this stage, but Halpern signed significantly cheaper and can replace some of the things Gordon brings to the table (locker room presence, defensive-zone faceoff prowess, penalty killing, etc.). I think at this stage of his career, Gordon might be a stronger offensive player, but that clearly isn’t what the Capitals are valuing in their recent additions. McPhee has targeted gritty, battle-tested veterans who bring a physical presence on the ice, and positive influence in the locker room. And the former Capitals captain Halpern certainly fits this bill.

It will be interesting to see if this is the end of the moves (aside from re-signing Brouwer and Alzner, which everyone expects to happen), or if McPhee makes a big trade in a week or so, after some of the free agent market. After all of the chatter about a potential trade leading up to the start of free agency, and the Capitals precarious salary cap situation, I wouldn’t be surprised if McPhee pulls off a big deal (possibly involving Semin) in the next couple of weeks.

Harper's promotion raises questions


The Nats made an interesting decision this week to promote Bryce Harper straight to AA Harrisburg, bypassing high-A Potomac. Much has been made about how much this might have to do with the shoddy field conditions at Potomac, where the field floods quite easily, especially in the outfield. I think that this probably has something to do with it, but not as much as has been reported. I think another contributing factor is the current outfielders at Potomac. In Eury Perez, Destin Hood and J.P. Ramirez, the Nats have three prospects in the outfield. These aren’t just minor-league filler-players, but rather players that the Nats think could make it to the big leagues. However, none are really ready to make the next step to AA. Hood is having a nice season, and was an all-star for Potomac, but he is still relatively new to baseball after being a two-sport star in high school (he had committed to play football at Alabama), and rushing him to the next level might not be a wise decision at this stage of the game. On the other hand, Harrisburg’s outfield isn’t nearly as crowded. No important player’s development would have been stunted by the addition of Harper to the outfield.

Another interesting note about Harper’s promotion is how he has gone from hitting third and playing mainly right field to hitting seventh and playing left field. I like the move to have Harper learn all three outfield positions. Why limit yourself with such an athletic player? The more concerning development is why Harper is hitting seventh? I understand that it might be a bit of a slap in the face to current Harrisburg players to move this kid immediately into the prime spot in the lineup, but this is a business. Don’t worry about people’s feelings. I think the more likely concern is that Nationals management realizes it is a pretty big jump from low-A to AA. As much as they don’t want to admit, I think they know they are taking a gamble in having Harper skip high-A. By hitting Harper lower in the lineup, maybe they feel like they are hedging their bets.

Last thought on this topic: I saw a piece on CSN yesterday about the Harper promotion. Chick Hernandez sat down with Harper, and Harper talked about how he had gotten “bored” at low-A. If you look at his numbers, this would certainly explain his recent batting trend. After hitting around .340 or .350 most of the year, Harper’s average fell down below .320 before his promotion. I had chalked this up to the nagging injuries that Nationals management had claimed were affecting Harper. The news that Harper was bored is actually more concerning to me. Now Harper has taken his share of criticism: from the eye black to the now famous “kiss” incident, some in the media have been looking for reasons to label Harper as a punk. I haven’t been concerned by any of those incidents because, at the end of the day, all of those stemmed from an inner drive and competitiveness that you want out of your top athletes. Think Jordan would have been as good as he was if he wasn’t the most competitive guy on the floor? No way. If it were Jordan, he would have gotten upset with losing any game. Granted, one player can influence a game more in basketball than in baseball, but you see where I’m coming from. The idea that a top athlete could get bored with playing the game they love and dominating the competition is concerning. Especially after all we heard about leading up to Harper’s selection last spring was about how competitive he was and how hard he played the game. Let’s hope this is just another example of an 18-year-old being acting like an 18-year-old.

Friday, July 1, 2011

Battle of the Beltways

Today I want to look at the struggles of the Nationals’ counterpart in the area, the Baltimore Orioles. Now stay with me here, this will tie back into the Nationals, I promise.

A couple of years ago, I was really worried that the Orioles were going to sink the Nationals into obscurity. They had a number of talented prospects coming to the big leagues, and more on the way. Adam Jones had just blossomed into an All-Star, and looked like the true five-tool centerfielder, a rarity in today’s game. Every Nationals fan remembers the hoopla surrounding Stephen Strasburg’s debut. But not too much earlier there was similar (albeit less) hoopla for the debut of Matt Wieters. I remember watching that game, even though there was a Nationals game going on at the same time, for the simple reason that, from everything I had read online, this was a can’t-miss prospect. A phenom that you just HAD to see. I remember watching as there was a sell-out at Camden Yards, and more amazingly, it was a sellout comprised of Orioles fans, not Red Sox or Yankees fans. Brad Bergesen was having an excellent year, and looked to easily be a capable, back-of-the-rotation starter. Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman were tearing up the minor leagues, as experts hyped them as the new “Big 3” about to arrive on the major league scene. They had a dynamite young closer in Chris Ray. They had their franchise cornerstone in place and locked up long-term, in outfielder Nick Markakis. I could continue, but this is the DC Sports Stop, not the Baltimore Sports Stop.

I really haven’t paid attention to the Orioles since that time. And, by all accounts, they are that same mediocre, bottom of the AL East team. What happened? It may be an oversimplification, but I think it comes down to the fact that their prospects got to the major leagues, enjoyed a small sample of success, and haven’t gotten better since. All of these supposed “stars” are league-average players at best. Markakis and Ryan Zimmerman signed similar contracts at similar points in their career, the thought being that they brought similar value to a team. Well, as it turns out, Markakis is a league-average outfielder. That’s about it. Zimmerman, in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), was one of the better players in the entire National League last year. Wieters is a league-average catcher. Matusz was just demoted to AAA. Arrieta has nine wins, but has an ERA of 4.50, so I have a hunch that his W-L record is about to even out. Bergesen and Tillman bounce back and forth between AAA and the big leagues. Chris Ray is in Seattle…enough said. Even a managerial change hasn’t helped in their development. The Orioles are now looking to a new wave of prospects, led by LHP Zach Britton and future SS Manny Machado, to bring the team back to relevancy. But how long will that take? Another five years? In the mean time, they have plugged in stopgap players all over the field, from Vladimir Guerrero to J.J. Hardy to Mark Reynolds (wait Mark Reynolds just struck out since I started typing this entry…sorry I couldn’t resist).

My point is this: a team that doesn’t develop its prospects at the Major League level can be debilitating for a franchise. It’s one thing for a minor-league pipeline to bring prospects to the major league level. But that’s just step one. If you don’t have a staff in place at the major league level to help these players continue to develop, then you are stuck in baseball quicksand.

And now back to the Nationals (see you just had to read that nice 600-word intro for context). I love the fact that Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos have burst onto the scene and become solid contributors for the Nats (you could make the argument that Espinosa is more than just a solid contributor, and I wouldn’t have a problem with it). But before we project them as All-Stars for the next decade, let’s remember that there is an important “next step” that these players have to take, to rise out of the ranks of merely league-average. And they don’t have to look that far to see examples of how difficult it can be. Ian Desmond was phenomenal last year with the bat, hitting at a very respectable mark, gradually rising up in the batting order, and looking like a force for years to come. From all accounts, the Nats balked at any trade proposal this offseason that required Desmond, that’s how much they valued his potential. And yet, here he is stuck hovering around .230 with very average power numbers. He’s a candidate to bat near the bottom of the order on days when Jerry Hairston and/or Brian Bixler aren’t in the lineup (don’t even get me started on that lineup for the finale of the Angels series). Yes, his defense has improved, but there are a lot of good defensive shortstops in baseball. Alex Cora is a pretty good defensive shortstop. But Alex Cora isn’t going to be starting for anyone in a winning capacity. He’s a utility guy. And with the Nats selecting Anthony Rendon in the draft, suddenly there are four players (Zimmerman, Desmond, Espinosa and Rendon) for three spots (3B, SS, 2B). Granted, we are a few years away from that point, but people are already beginning to wonder if Desmond is the odd-man out, a player who might be better suited for a utility role.

Another guy you could argue falls into this category is Roger Bernadina. The Nats have given him ample opportunities the last two seasons to grab one of the outfield jobs. He has all of the tools. Every Nats fan who has watched a moderate amount of games has seen flashes of his speed, power, outfield arm (how about that throw in the Angels’ finale, gunning the runner at second on a line from left-center? Great throw), and ability to hit for average. But he just can’t seem to put it together. At least, not to any degree that is higher than a .280 average with a few home runs. In fact, his numbers are comparable to Nick Markakis, who we have already established as a league-average outfielder.

There are probably other examples, but those were the ones that screamed at me. The point is that the hay isn’t in the barn just because these prospects have made the major leagues. Let’s be patient and watch to see if these players can take that next step that will be so critical for the success of this franchise.

Caps notes

Free agency starts today, and as quickly as deals are happening, most of what I’m writing now could be obsolete in a couple of hours. However, here are a couple of quick thoughts on some of the Caps free agents.

Jason Arnott- don’t expect to see him back. I think his price tag won’t be worth the production that he brings. Let’s face it: the guy is old at this stage of his career.

Matt Bradley- love the guy, but seems to be a very replaceable player on the fourth line. Jay Beagle and others are waiting to step in if (and it appears when) Bradley leaves via free agency.

Boyd Gordon- I think similar to Brooks Laich, this is a glue guy that should be maintained. He does a little bit of everything, is one of the better faceoff guys on the Caps (which became much more important after Dave Steckel was shipped out at last year’s trade deadline), and is one of the longest tenured players in that dressing room. I think he is a player that you bring back and plug on your fourth line for the next five years (assuming he can stay healthy, which is a legitimate concern with Gordon).

Scott Hannan- This one’s tough. There is no denying that he had a positive impact on the Caps defense corps when he was acquired. He is a “talker” on the ice, which apparently something the Caps were lacking (someone is going to have explain that more to me. How is it so hard to open your mouth when you are playing? I feel like this could be an acquired skill. But I digress). However, the Caps have a solid foundation of defensemen, and Dmitri Orlov is coming, another left-handed, puck-moving defenseman. I think this decision will probably come down to Hannan’s price-tag, as well as the Caps long-term plan for Mike Green. If they are going to trade Green, I think you need to bring Hannan back. If not, I think he could be expendable.

Marco Sturm- You’re kidding right? No way.

And I would be remiss if I didn’t talk about the supposed “done-deal” of Semyon Varlamov going to the KHL. I was listening to Alan May, the Caps analyst for CSN, talk about this yesterday and he noted how this would be a huge step backward for Varlamov if he went to the KHL, which May considered the third-best league in the world, behind the NHL and the Swedish Elite League. I think it would be pretty cowardly if Varlamov went through with this plan, just because the Caps won’t give him No. 1 goaltender money (which he doesn’t deserve at this stage of his career). If he makes the decision that he would rather take more money in Russia, then stay in America and compete for the starting job, then I say good riddance. That’s a player that you are never going to be able to count on in the playoffs to be mentally tough enough to win you games. And the Caps have solid options in Neuvirth and Holtby, so it’s not like Varlamov has them over a barrel. That being said, I think if he can put it together, Varlamov is the most talented of the bunch. I think if he really bought in, dedicated himself, and found some magic potion that would allow him to stay healthy, he could be an All-Star in this league, especially with the Capitals continuing to commit to a more defensive-oriented style. So, the ball is in your court Varly.

Tour de France Predictions!!!!!!

Yes it’s that time again. The best three weeks of the year (just kidding, but it’s up there). The Tour de France kicks off tomorrow with a treacherous stage. The drama will continue to be about the Contador-Schleck battle, as well as Contador’s innocence (or lack thereof) regarding last year’s Tour. He tested positive, but somehow wiggled his way out of punishment. I’ll spare you the details, because I’m sure everyone is sick of reading about doping cyclists. I know I am. So without further adieu, my predictions for the top-five of this year’s Tour.

5. Frank Schleck- supporting his brother, he sneaks into the top-five.

4. Chris Horner- the American’s end-of-career Renaissance continues. Using the support of Leipheimer and Kloden, he turns in his best career finish at the TdF.

3. Jurgen Van Den Broeck – I think this is the time for his big breakthrough

2. Alberto Contador

1. Andy Schleck- Yep, I think it’s his time. Maybe Contador gets worried about all of the doping allegations. Maybe Contador gets tired from already having raced the Giro d’Italia. More realistically, I think Schleck has a stronger team, and if his chain doesn’t come off last year, that race was a dead heat. I think Schleck gets the edge this year and brings one home for Luxembourg.

If you’re sick of my Tour ramblings, buckle up, because I’m sure there will be more to follow in the upcoming weeks.


Wimbledon Final Prediction

I think Djokovic wins his first Wimbledon championship, no matter if it’s against Murray or Nadal. He wouldn’t have lost a match at all this year if it weren’t for one unbelievable match from the best player in the history of tennis (Roger Federer). So I think it’s his time. Plus, Murray can’t possibly win. That would be awful to see the Brits finally get that monkey off their back.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Capitals sticking to their guns

Kudos to the Capitals for not panicking. Yes, their recent playoff failures have been disappointing and disheartening. But with today’s announcement that Brooks Laich won’t be leaving via free agency, instead signing a 6-year, $27 million deal, the Capitals made a statement that they still believe in the nucleus of this club. And make no mistake about it, Laich is not just a phenomenal player, but also one of the “glue” guys in that locker room. If it weren’t for hockey’s fascination with giving the captain’s “C” and the alternate “A” out to the best players, almost regardless of leadership ability, then Laich would certainly have an “A” on his chest (I mean, seriously, I think Nick Backstrom is a tremendous hockey player, but is he really the guy who is going to pick everyone up in the locker room when things are going bad? He couldn’t even dig himself out of that awful rut against the Lightning. Is it so wrong for someone to just be a good player, and not have to have this burden of leadership shoved on them? I understand Ovechkin, because your best player HAS to be your leader. But your second and third best players? I’m not so sure).

Now I understand that this is just the first move of the offseason. They could certainly go out and trade Alex Semin and maybe others. But I’m glad they realized that there is a certain core group of players that HAVE to be kept around. And I think Laich certainly qualifies for that group. How many players in the league have the all-around skill-set that Laich has? He isn’t just a top-six forward, but he also is a regular contributor on the power play and penalty kill units.

I think it’s clear that the Capitals management believes in what they’ve built. They know they have a good, but flawed, group of players right now. Maybe they are banking on the last few top prospects in the system (players like Dmitri Orlov, Cody Eakin, Evgeny Kuznetsov) being the last little nudge to complete this team. Maybe McPhee really believes that all the Capitals needed to beat the Lightning was a puck-moving defenseman (since Mike Green, Tom Poti and Dennis Wideman all were either out or missed time during that series). Maybe McPhee believes they just need a little bit of veteran grit (i.e. Troy Brouwer, although at age 25, I’m not sure whether he can qualify for “grizzled vet” status yet). But I think it’s clear that he isn’t going to blow up everything that he has built since the lockout. Caps management has put up with a couple awful seasons after the lockout, and then the well-documented playoff failures. For better or worse, I think they have hitched their wagon to this core group of players and they’re only going to go as far as that group of players wants to go. If they were going to blow up the team and try a new avenue for success, I think Boudreau would have been fired within a week after they were bounced from the playoffs. But that’s not this management team’s style. And in a couple years, I bet we will be thankful for their patience in not mortgaging this team’s bright future for a sideways step in the present.

Nats Notes

How does this team keep winning? Somehow the Nats won the finale of their series with the White Sox, after being pretty much blanked for most of the game. Then one swing of the bat from Danny Espinosa, who quietly has become a top-three candidate for the N.L. Rookie of the Year (he would be the leader if it weren’t for the batting average he is currently sporting, which I realize is a misleading stat, but hey, voters are stupid), and the Nats find themselves in the driver’s seat. A clean outing from the bullpen, and the Nats take two out of three in Chicago.

Then we turn to last night against the Angels, when it looked like the script was going to repeat itself. The Nats battled to stay in the game all night long (how John Lannan made it past the third inning last night is beyond me), and after wiggling their way out of jam after jam, a clutch home run from Espinosa tied up the game. Unfortunately, the magic ran out in the 10th, when Sean Burnett looked like the Sean Burnett from the beginning of the year. Look, teams can’t win consistently with as little offense as the Nats have had. Sure, you can go on a run like the Nats have, but it’s going to catch up to you after a while. If only, we had another big bat in the lineup, like someone we had spent $128 million on. Oh wait…

(By the way, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention how sweet that 5-4-3 double play was in last night’s game. Zimmerman made a great diving snag on a hotshot to his left. But with Zimmerman we almost take this for granted. The more impressive part for me was Espinosa making a sweet turn and strong throw with a runner barreling down on him, and Michael Morse making a difficult pick at first base. It’s really amazing how good defensively Morse has been at first. I think you could easily make the argument that he has become a league-average or maybe even above-average defensive first baseman. And considering he is doing all of this on the fly, while carrying the Nationals offense for the better part of a month, well I think the man deserves some credit. The more I think about it, the more I think that Morse ends up as the Nationals all-star this year. Tyler Clippard has been great, but set-up men just don’t make the all-star game. Life’s just not fair.)

Wizards clarification

In my last post, I mentioned how I wasn’t enamored with the Vesely pick, in part because of the failures of Oleksiy Pecherov. However, I want to emphasize the “in part” part. My general feeling of angst over this pick goes back more to the history of failed European big men in the NBA, not necessarily the one that the Wizards had. Think about successful Euros in the league. For every Dirk, there are ten Nikoloz Tskitishvilis. Name me the last successful Euro big man. Gallinari? Bargnani? Both are talented, but clearly flawed, players. All-stars? No way. So maybe if we have those expectations then I’m okay with that pick. I guess I just would have rather had a flawed player with good defense (Kawhi Leonard), then a flawed player whose strength is running and dunking (Vesely). But hey, I hope he proves me wrong.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

The DC Sports Dread

I’m creating a new term today. I’m going to call it the DC Sport Dread, for lack of a better phrase (if anyone else has a better idea, please let me know in the comments section). It refers to that point in a game when a play happens that could only happen to a Washington sports team. Or even more generally, it refers to an event that makes you think, “Why am I a D.C. fan again? Why do I put myself through so much agony?” An easy example of this is after the Capitals lost to the Montreal Canadiens in the first round of the playoffs after being the top seed. Or that awful day when everyone woke up to see that Stephen Strasburg needed Tommy John surgery.

Unfortunately, we had another moment of the D.C. Sports Dread this past week. Just as the Nationals are looking to turn a corner in their perpetual rebuilding process (as I wrote about earlier in the week), they are dealt this gut-punch: the resignation of Jim Riggleman. My immediate thought was, “Only in DC would we finally get a winning manager, only to have him resign as SOON as the going was good because of a contract squabble.” I was frustrated not so much because I think Jim Riggleman is a great manager (I don’t, and his 662-824 career record would seem to offer support for that claim), but rather because I was concerned over how the clubhouse would handle such a shocking development. With such an influx of young players on the team, I was worried how their potentially fragile psyche would handle this twist of fate.

Well, if Friday’s marathon game against the White Sox (which I had the good fortune to attend), where the bullpen blew the lead THREE times, only to finally recover and scrape together a 9-5 victory is any indication, maybe that clubhouse isn’t so fragile. I have to admit, I thought the game was over when Drew Storen was brought into the game to close it out in the ninth. The game had followed the Nationals’ winning streak script so closely: no offense from either squad for most of the game, then beat up on some sorry reliever from the other team near the end of the game, and use our dominant bullpen to close out the game. Unfortunately, Storen, Toddy Coffey and Tyler Clippard all blew leads. So much for that theory.

I definitely thought the game was over when Coffey blew the lead on a wild pitch, then loaded the bases with one out, the Sox only needing one more run to end the game. Yet somehow Coffey came up with a clutch strikeout and groundout to allow the Nationals to fight another inning. The offense roared to life in extra innings, aided by the back end of the White Sox bullpen. Laynce Nix continues to have a very respectable season, smoking a home run to right-center. Back and forth the teams went, and with each White Sox rally, more and more of the DC Sports Dread crept into mind. Even when the Nats assembled a four-run lead in the 14th inning, I was still waiting for the other shoe to drop.

But it didn’t, and the Nationals came up with another victory, their 12th out of the last 13, pulling them to within 3 ½ games of the wild card. Yes, I know this is crazy talk. But it’s fun to think about.

Other Nats Notes

One big reason why I think the Nats don’t have enough steam to pull off a playoff push is Jordan Zimmermann’s innings limit. Zimmermann has developed into a true ace (yes I know Marquis has a better win-loss record, but let’s be real here. If you have one game to win, you are sending Zimmermann to the mound). Because of Zimmermann’s Tommy John surgery a couple of years ago, Zimmermann will probably be cut off around the middle to end of August (which incidentally is a pretty important time for teams if you want to make the playoffs). But if you are a Nats fan, you know that this isn’t THE year, and Zimmermann’s results this season are encouraging for the future. I have to be honest, I was always a little skeptical that Zimmermann could be a true No. 2 behind Strasburg. But after this season, I think he can be a top of division No. 2, no questions asked. If he had any sort of run support and bullpen help, Zimmermann would be an all-star this year. However, because of voters’ fascination with win-loss record, he won’t be. If you’re a fan, you have to like Zimmermann’s style. He pitches fast, he pounds the strike zone with heat, and he has an arsenal of nasty breaking pitches. He also isn’t a head-case (which, after years of following Daniel Cabrera on the Orioles, has taken on more significance for me in how I look at pitchers). I think the Nationals future rotation with Zimmermann and Strasburg at the top (and then some assortment of A.J. Cole, Alex Meyer, Sammy Solis, Robbie Ray, John Lannan, etc.) is shaping up very nicely.

After a game like last night, it might be instinct to be discouraged about the bullpen, given that they did blow the lead THREE times. However, I actually took the opposite away from the game. Yes, the Nationals’ best relievers didn’t come through in the clutch. But the fact that guys like Ryan Mattheus and Collin Balester were forced into action and were able to come up with valuable innings makes me feel better about the bullpen. And aside from an atrocious call at first, Henry Rodriguez would have had an easy 1-2-3 8th inning in a high-pressure situation. Look, Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen can’t pitch EVERY game. At some point, other relievers are going to have to step up and pitch in (forgive the pun). And judging from Friday’s game, there should be enough candidates. And don’t forget that Cole Kimball could be back up in a few weeks.

Wizards Draft Notes

I have to admit, I had a little of the DC Sports Dread when the Wizards grabbed Jan Vesely also. And before everyone starts talking about how awesome his kiss and draft interview was, remember that Oleksiy Pecherov was a hoot also. Almost as comical was his attempt to play professional basketball. I know that Vesely is supposed to be the “anti-Euro,” in that he attacks the basket, can play average to above average defense, and can’t make an outside shot to save his life, but I’m still skeptical. If you’re telling me that we couldn’t find an American guy to run fast and catch alley-oops from John Wall, I’m calling bullshit on that. I love the second pick in Chris Singleton, because the Wizards defense was a sieve last season. Singleton can defend four positions, and better yet, he takes PRIDE in doing so. My dream scenario would have been pairing Singleton with Kawhi Leonard to form a dominant defensive tandem. I think Leonard might have been the steal of the draft, falling to No. 15. He can defend, rebound, he plays hard, and by all accounts is a great locker room guy (which reminds me: I’m so glad we took Shelvin Mack instead of Josh Selby. Mack might not have the upside of Selby, but his locker room presence will more than make up for it in my mind. The last thing the Wizards need is another nitwit). And what’s so bad about a solid rotation player? Given that this draft was awful, I would have looked not for the superstar, but for the 6th-10th man on a championship team. I think Singleton and Mack certainly fit that bill, but I’m not sure about Vesely. He could easily be just another Euro out of the league in a couple of years. But I will say this: I like him better than either of the Lithuanians, so if we were going to venture down that avenue, Vesely was one of the better options.

Capitals Draft Notes

Or lack thereof. The Caps traded their first-round pick to the Blackhawks for forward Troy Brouwer. Even though I have lived in the Chicago area for the last four years, I have to confess that I don’t have a great scouting report on Brouwer. From what I can gather from the internet, he is a strong power forward with a knack for scoring around the net (he sounds like a Mike Knuble/Tomas Holmstrom-type…Well, except for the fact that there is really only one Tomas Holmstrom). He is only 25, and he is set to be a restricted free agent. I’m really pretty ambivalent about this trade, but I trust George McPhee’s draft sense implicitly. He maneuvers the NHL draft the way that Belichick maneuvers the NFL draft. There’s a reason that the Capitals have been able to find players like John Carlson and Mike Green at the end of the first round. Braden Holtby was a later round pick. And it sounds like other later-round picks, like Dmitri Orlov and Cody Eakin, are set to make a big impact in Washington, possibly as soon as this season. So if McPhee says he wasn’t enamored with any player who could have been there at No. 26, then I believe him. We basically took a Redskins-style draft-punt this year, but because of the depth of our farm system (and McPhee’s restraint in not surrendering top prospects at last year’s trade deadline), I think we will be okay. On another note, if I were Eric Fehr, I would be a little worried by the acquisition of Brouwer. It sounds like they are basically the same type of player, and Caps management could finally be fed up with Fehr’s injury struggles. It’s not Fehr’s fault in the slightest, and he certainly is a talented player when healthy, and it sounds like he does great work in the community, but at some point he might be the result of a numbers crunch. Or it’s possible that Brouwer is an insurance policy in case Brooks Laich leaves via free agency. It’s a weak free agent crop, and someone might want to spend a lot to get Laich, a true top-six forward. Laich doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would bolt for the money, but you never know. Brouwer could end up playing an even bigger role in such a scenario.

Redskins News

Uhhhhhh……….

Until next time folks.