Friday, July 1, 2011

Battle of the Beltways

Today I want to look at the struggles of the Nationals’ counterpart in the area, the Baltimore Orioles. Now stay with me here, this will tie back into the Nationals, I promise.

A couple of years ago, I was really worried that the Orioles were going to sink the Nationals into obscurity. They had a number of talented prospects coming to the big leagues, and more on the way. Adam Jones had just blossomed into an All-Star, and looked like the true five-tool centerfielder, a rarity in today’s game. Every Nationals fan remembers the hoopla surrounding Stephen Strasburg’s debut. But not too much earlier there was similar (albeit less) hoopla for the debut of Matt Wieters. I remember watching that game, even though there was a Nationals game going on at the same time, for the simple reason that, from everything I had read online, this was a can’t-miss prospect. A phenom that you just HAD to see. I remember watching as there was a sell-out at Camden Yards, and more amazingly, it was a sellout comprised of Orioles fans, not Red Sox or Yankees fans. Brad Bergesen was having an excellent year, and looked to easily be a capable, back-of-the-rotation starter. Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman were tearing up the minor leagues, as experts hyped them as the new “Big 3” about to arrive on the major league scene. They had a dynamite young closer in Chris Ray. They had their franchise cornerstone in place and locked up long-term, in outfielder Nick Markakis. I could continue, but this is the DC Sports Stop, not the Baltimore Sports Stop.

I really haven’t paid attention to the Orioles since that time. And, by all accounts, they are that same mediocre, bottom of the AL East team. What happened? It may be an oversimplification, but I think it comes down to the fact that their prospects got to the major leagues, enjoyed a small sample of success, and haven’t gotten better since. All of these supposed “stars” are league-average players at best. Markakis and Ryan Zimmerman signed similar contracts at similar points in their career, the thought being that they brought similar value to a team. Well, as it turns out, Markakis is a league-average outfielder. That’s about it. Zimmerman, in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), was one of the better players in the entire National League last year. Wieters is a league-average catcher. Matusz was just demoted to AAA. Arrieta has nine wins, but has an ERA of 4.50, so I have a hunch that his W-L record is about to even out. Bergesen and Tillman bounce back and forth between AAA and the big leagues. Chris Ray is in Seattle…enough said. Even a managerial change hasn’t helped in their development. The Orioles are now looking to a new wave of prospects, led by LHP Zach Britton and future SS Manny Machado, to bring the team back to relevancy. But how long will that take? Another five years? In the mean time, they have plugged in stopgap players all over the field, from Vladimir Guerrero to J.J. Hardy to Mark Reynolds (wait Mark Reynolds just struck out since I started typing this entry…sorry I couldn’t resist).

My point is this: a team that doesn’t develop its prospects at the Major League level can be debilitating for a franchise. It’s one thing for a minor-league pipeline to bring prospects to the major league level. But that’s just step one. If you don’t have a staff in place at the major league level to help these players continue to develop, then you are stuck in baseball quicksand.

And now back to the Nationals (see you just had to read that nice 600-word intro for context). I love the fact that Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos have burst onto the scene and become solid contributors for the Nats (you could make the argument that Espinosa is more than just a solid contributor, and I wouldn’t have a problem with it). But before we project them as All-Stars for the next decade, let’s remember that there is an important “next step” that these players have to take, to rise out of the ranks of merely league-average. And they don’t have to look that far to see examples of how difficult it can be. Ian Desmond was phenomenal last year with the bat, hitting at a very respectable mark, gradually rising up in the batting order, and looking like a force for years to come. From all accounts, the Nats balked at any trade proposal this offseason that required Desmond, that’s how much they valued his potential. And yet, here he is stuck hovering around .230 with very average power numbers. He’s a candidate to bat near the bottom of the order on days when Jerry Hairston and/or Brian Bixler aren’t in the lineup (don’t even get me started on that lineup for the finale of the Angels series). Yes, his defense has improved, but there are a lot of good defensive shortstops in baseball. Alex Cora is a pretty good defensive shortstop. But Alex Cora isn’t going to be starting for anyone in a winning capacity. He’s a utility guy. And with the Nats selecting Anthony Rendon in the draft, suddenly there are four players (Zimmerman, Desmond, Espinosa and Rendon) for three spots (3B, SS, 2B). Granted, we are a few years away from that point, but people are already beginning to wonder if Desmond is the odd-man out, a player who might be better suited for a utility role.

Another guy you could argue falls into this category is Roger Bernadina. The Nats have given him ample opportunities the last two seasons to grab one of the outfield jobs. He has all of the tools. Every Nats fan who has watched a moderate amount of games has seen flashes of his speed, power, outfield arm (how about that throw in the Angels’ finale, gunning the runner at second on a line from left-center? Great throw), and ability to hit for average. But he just can’t seem to put it together. At least, not to any degree that is higher than a .280 average with a few home runs. In fact, his numbers are comparable to Nick Markakis, who we have already established as a league-average outfielder.

There are probably other examples, but those were the ones that screamed at me. The point is that the hay isn’t in the barn just because these prospects have made the major leagues. Let’s be patient and watch to see if these players can take that next step that will be so critical for the success of this franchise.

Caps notes

Free agency starts today, and as quickly as deals are happening, most of what I’m writing now could be obsolete in a couple of hours. However, here are a couple of quick thoughts on some of the Caps free agents.

Jason Arnott- don’t expect to see him back. I think his price tag won’t be worth the production that he brings. Let’s face it: the guy is old at this stage of his career.

Matt Bradley- love the guy, but seems to be a very replaceable player on the fourth line. Jay Beagle and others are waiting to step in if (and it appears when) Bradley leaves via free agency.

Boyd Gordon- I think similar to Brooks Laich, this is a glue guy that should be maintained. He does a little bit of everything, is one of the better faceoff guys on the Caps (which became much more important after Dave Steckel was shipped out at last year’s trade deadline), and is one of the longest tenured players in that dressing room. I think he is a player that you bring back and plug on your fourth line for the next five years (assuming he can stay healthy, which is a legitimate concern with Gordon).

Scott Hannan- This one’s tough. There is no denying that he had a positive impact on the Caps defense corps when he was acquired. He is a “talker” on the ice, which apparently something the Caps were lacking (someone is going to have explain that more to me. How is it so hard to open your mouth when you are playing? I feel like this could be an acquired skill. But I digress). However, the Caps have a solid foundation of defensemen, and Dmitri Orlov is coming, another left-handed, puck-moving defenseman. I think this decision will probably come down to Hannan’s price-tag, as well as the Caps long-term plan for Mike Green. If they are going to trade Green, I think you need to bring Hannan back. If not, I think he could be expendable.

Marco Sturm- You’re kidding right? No way.

And I would be remiss if I didn’t talk about the supposed “done-deal” of Semyon Varlamov going to the KHL. I was listening to Alan May, the Caps analyst for CSN, talk about this yesterday and he noted how this would be a huge step backward for Varlamov if he went to the KHL, which May considered the third-best league in the world, behind the NHL and the Swedish Elite League. I think it would be pretty cowardly if Varlamov went through with this plan, just because the Caps won’t give him No. 1 goaltender money (which he doesn’t deserve at this stage of his career). If he makes the decision that he would rather take more money in Russia, then stay in America and compete for the starting job, then I say good riddance. That’s a player that you are never going to be able to count on in the playoffs to be mentally tough enough to win you games. And the Caps have solid options in Neuvirth and Holtby, so it’s not like Varlamov has them over a barrel. That being said, I think if he can put it together, Varlamov is the most talented of the bunch. I think if he really bought in, dedicated himself, and found some magic potion that would allow him to stay healthy, he could be an All-Star in this league, especially with the Capitals continuing to commit to a more defensive-oriented style. So, the ball is in your court Varly.

Tour de France Predictions!!!!!!

Yes it’s that time again. The best three weeks of the year (just kidding, but it’s up there). The Tour de France kicks off tomorrow with a treacherous stage. The drama will continue to be about the Contador-Schleck battle, as well as Contador’s innocence (or lack thereof) regarding last year’s Tour. He tested positive, but somehow wiggled his way out of punishment. I’ll spare you the details, because I’m sure everyone is sick of reading about doping cyclists. I know I am. So without further adieu, my predictions for the top-five of this year’s Tour.

5. Frank Schleck- supporting his brother, he sneaks into the top-five.

4. Chris Horner- the American’s end-of-career Renaissance continues. Using the support of Leipheimer and Kloden, he turns in his best career finish at the TdF.

3. Jurgen Van Den Broeck – I think this is the time for his big breakthrough

2. Alberto Contador

1. Andy Schleck- Yep, I think it’s his time. Maybe Contador gets worried about all of the doping allegations. Maybe Contador gets tired from already having raced the Giro d’Italia. More realistically, I think Schleck has a stronger team, and if his chain doesn’t come off last year, that race was a dead heat. I think Schleck gets the edge this year and brings one home for Luxembourg.

If you’re sick of my Tour ramblings, buckle up, because I’m sure there will be more to follow in the upcoming weeks.


Wimbledon Final Prediction

I think Djokovic wins his first Wimbledon championship, no matter if it’s against Murray or Nadal. He wouldn’t have lost a match at all this year if it weren’t for one unbelievable match from the best player in the history of tennis (Roger Federer). So I think it’s his time. Plus, Murray can’t possibly win. That would be awful to see the Brits finally get that monkey off their back.

No comments:

Post a Comment