Today’s report from Jason La Canfora at NFL Network that the Redskins may be firing up Redskins One in preparation for a record showing at the beginning of NFL free agency isn’t really breaking news. I think most insiders around the league expect the team to be active this offseason, considering the combination of a large pool of free agents and numerous needs for the Redskins across the board. However, the list that La Canfora offered was a little puzzling. For years, fans have been clamoring for a big receiver to complement Santana Moss (who is a free agent in his own right), and so the Redskins answer to that is…Santonio Holmes? Last year, the Redskins clearly were trying to plug square pegs into round holes with their transition to the 3-4. So the Redskins answer is to sign Kris Jenkins and/or Barry Cofield, two defensive tackles who have played the majority of their careers as penetrating 3-techniques in a 4-3? Haven’t we already tried to turn a 4-3 tackle into a 3-4 nose (I’m sure there was someone…)? The remainder of the list makes sense (Marshall Yanda would be a huge upgrade at guard, as would Cullen Jenkins as a starting end opposite Adam Carriker). The potential re-signing of Rex Grossman should surprise no one, and the news that the team will pursue Philip Buchanon to play opposite DeAngelo Hall (instead of blindly turning the starting job over to the unproven Kevin Barnes) is encouraging.
However, haven’t we seen this movie before? The Redskins, facing needs at numerous positions, spend and overpay in free agency, burying us underneath the cap? Look, I think the Redskins need to spend some money this offseason, because otherwise they are facing the possibility of being just dreadful. However, with the team not drafting a quarterback (which I think was a smart move, given the talent available where they were picking), it almost sends a signal that this is going to be a rebuilding year. If you’re going into the season with the tandem of Grossman and Beck under center, you can’t realistically have your expectations set at much more than being .500 (and even that is with your Redskins goggles on). So why go out and spend all this money, as if you were one piece away from a championship? To me it just sends mixed signals. It’s like the team is hedging its bets, something it has done well for the past ten years, a main cause of their continued mediocrity. How about for once, you take your lumps? Realize that the previous however many head coaches have dug the team a hole. Plug in a few players that you can get at a decent value, and take your 4-12 beating this year. I know it’ll be tough for the fans, but it has to be done. Look at the Capitals. They were dreadful for a couple of years, before getting the No. 1 overall pick, and rebuilding around that player. Now I don’t have to tell you Redskins fans that there is a pretty good option there in next year’s draft. Why not take that route? It’s starting to show results for the Nationals, who have suddenly become a feisty, competitive squad with loads of young talent on the way. The Wizards are trying to do the same around John Wall and several other talented young players. Heck, at this point, we might as well call this strategy the “D.C. Blueprint.” Step 1: Become an embarrassment to your league for a couple of years. Step 2: Select once-in-a-generation talent with the No. 1 overall pick (alright, classifying Wall in that category may be a stretch, but work with me). Step 3: Continue to add young pieces in future drafts, accumulating draft picks, and using this influx of talent to acquire more assets. Step 4 (which we may be seeing now with the Capitals): add select grizzled veterans to give the team the proverbial “edge” necessary to win come crunch-time. Step 5: Victory Parade!
If I were to classify each of our teams, I would say the Capitals are in Step 4, the Nationals and Wizards are in Step 3 (with the Nationals significantly further along), and the Redskins are in continued denial that they aren’t near Step 5. It’s sad, because if someone could just fax them a copy of this blueprint, they could easily be in Step 3 by 2013. But instead, we Redskins fans will have to settle for one exciting day when free agency opens. Enjoy it, because it may just be the best day of the year for Redskins fans. Unless of course we beat Dallas. Then that trumps everything.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Espinosa becoming the reason to watch the Nats
Right before our eyes Danny Espinosa is becoming not only an all-star worthy player, but also the most exciting player on the Nationals. Is he the best player on the Nats or the face of the franchise? No, that moniker will remain with Ryan Zimmerman for the foreseeable future (despite the many attempts to remove pass on that title to Strasburg, Werth and, soon, Bryce Harper). Is he the most expensive player on the Nats roster? No, and I think we all know who will have that title for the foreseeable future. But Espinosa is the kind of player that could easily become the most popular player on the Nats. He plays the game the right ways. He hits the long home runs (everyone loves dingers!), makes incredible defensive plays and is aggressive on the basepaths (despite Davey Johnson’s best efforts). Frankly, I think it’s a travesty that he hasn’t been named to the all-star team yet, especially with the litany of “injury” replacements that are now coming out. Until Strasburg returns and brings his record crowds with him, or until Harper is called up and starts hitting moonshot home runs, the reason to watch the Nats is Espinosa.
For the future though, the question remains where Espinosa will finally settle. Given his performance this year, I don’t think it’s out of the question to consider Espinosa a potential perennial all-star at second base. But would the Nationals be better served moving him to shortstop? He certainly has the arm to be able to play shortstop. He played shortstop for almost all of his time in the minors, so it’s not like he hasn’t played the position in a while. Every Nats fan recognizes that, after a promising first season, Ian Desmond’s production has fallen off precipitously. And Anthony Rendon should move fast through the minor leagues, assuming he can get fully healthy after some shoulder troubles this past season at Rice. I would argue that you don’t mess with a good thing. You certainly don’t move Espinosa until Rendon is banging down the door. I think that Espinosa’s power/defensive combination is rare to find at second base, and the Nationals would be doing them and Espinosa a disservice if they moved him. Besides, maybe Ian Desmond will get things turned around soon (uhhhh…but don’t hold your breath on that one).
For the future though, the question remains where Espinosa will finally settle. Given his performance this year, I don’t think it’s out of the question to consider Espinosa a potential perennial all-star at second base. But would the Nationals be better served moving him to shortstop? He certainly has the arm to be able to play shortstop. He played shortstop for almost all of his time in the minors, so it’s not like he hasn’t played the position in a while. Every Nats fan recognizes that, after a promising first season, Ian Desmond’s production has fallen off precipitously. And Anthony Rendon should move fast through the minor leagues, assuming he can get fully healthy after some shoulder troubles this past season at Rice. I would argue that you don’t mess with a good thing. You certainly don’t move Espinosa until Rendon is banging down the door. I think that Espinosa’s power/defensive combination is rare to find at second base, and the Nationals would be doing them and Espinosa a disservice if they moved him. Besides, maybe Ian Desmond will get things turned around soon (uhhhh…but don’t hold your breath on that one).
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Caps make solid additions in wild start to free agency
I know this is a bit late by now, but I think the Capitals did really well in their flurry of deals at the start of free agency. I realize that isn’t the boldest statement, as there has been almost uniform praise for GM George McPhee after his few days of wheeling and dealing. But honestly, looking at the moves very objectively, I can poke a few holes, but that’s about it.
Let’s start with the trade of Semyon Varlamov. At first glance, I wasn’t a huge fan of this trade, as I think Varlamov is the most talented of the Caps’ goalies. I think that he could easily develop into an all-star goalie with the Avalanche, provided he stays healthy. He has got the talent to be that true No. 1 goalie that a team needs come playoff-time. However, upon further examination, I recognized that the Avalanche were REALLY bad last year. As in, they had the second-worst record in the league. So getting a first-round pick from them could net a top-five pick next year for the Caps. Not only would this be a huge asset if they were to keep the pick, but impressive trade bait for the deadline next year. You can build a deal for a big star (and now I’m talking about a Brad Richards-type player, not a Dennis Wideman-type player) around that pick at the deadline and maybe put the team over the edge. Besides, if Varlamov went to Russia and the KHL, the Caps would have been stuck with no compensation. Now they got two premium draft picks for the young Russian goalie. Good trade.
In more goalie news, I like the Tomas Vokoun signing, strictly based on the value that they paid. Any time you can get a goalie of Vokoun’s stature for backup goalie money (they got Vokoun for a fraction more than they were reported to be offering Varlamov), it’s a good deal. But that’s just from a collecting assets perspective. I’m not sure how exactly he fits in to the team’s plans next year. Is he the undisputed No. 1 entering the season? Is it another time-share with Neuvirth? If so, is this just another Varlamov-Theodore situation? There’s also the issue that this isn’t a playoff-tested veteran. Vokoun has played most of his years on bad teams. Now he has put up impressive numbers over that stretch, which is certainly admirable. But Vokoun is still something of an unknown come crunch time. And clearly some players just can’t come through in the clutch (as we have seen in the past two postseasons). Maybe they develop that skill over time, but Vokoun is already 35. How much time does he have to adjust to playoff hockey?
Not a big fan of the Joel Ward signing. McPhee even acknowledged that the team overpaid pretty significantly for Ward. I’d be okay if this were an established veteran, but if you look at Ward’s track record, he was basically a career minor leaguer until a couple of years ago. Then he burst onto the scene and, to his credit, he has had three solid seasons with the Predators and a couple of successful postseasons. He is another bigger, grittier player, which seems to be a theme for the Caps this offseason after the early acquisition of Troy Brouwer. But consider me a skeptic in giving a player with sucha limited track record this amount of money.
Roman Hamrlik is a solid addition as a veteran defenseman, who can do a little bit of everything. In the Caps defense corps, he will probably fill a stay-at-home defenseman role, but that’s not to say he is incompetent with the puck on his stick (looking at you Jeff Schultz). There has already been talk about pairing Hamrlik with Mike Green, which could be a dynamite combination. Green has been searching for a partner for most of his career. Clearly the Jeff Schultz partnership wasn’t ideal. I think Hamrlik’s veteran presence might just be the right fit.
Suddenly, Washington’s blue line is very crowded. I think you can pencil Green, Hamrlik, Alzner, Carlson and Wideman into the top-five. That leaves one spot in the lineup and maybe one more spot on the roster for a group that includes John Erskine, Tom Poti, Scott Hannan (although the odds that he is brought back fell precipitously once Hamrlik was signed) and top prospect Dmitri Orlov. If I had to guess, I would say Erskine gets the nod as the last defenseman on the squad.
It might have gone under the radar, but the signing of Jeff Halpern is a good one. He basically replaces Boyd Gordon, who might be younger and more talented at this stage, but Halpern signed significantly cheaper and can replace some of the things Gordon brings to the table (locker room presence, defensive-zone faceoff prowess, penalty killing, etc.). I think at this stage of his career, Gordon might be a stronger offensive player, but that clearly isn’t what the Capitals are valuing in their recent additions. McPhee has targeted gritty, battle-tested veterans who bring a physical presence on the ice, and positive influence in the locker room. And the former Capitals captain Halpern certainly fits this bill.
It will be interesting to see if this is the end of the moves (aside from re-signing Brouwer and Alzner, which everyone expects to happen), or if McPhee makes a big trade in a week or so, after some of the free agent market. After all of the chatter about a potential trade leading up to the start of free agency, and the Capitals precarious salary cap situation, I wouldn’t be surprised if McPhee pulls off a big deal (possibly involving Semin) in the next couple of weeks.
Let’s start with the trade of Semyon Varlamov. At first glance, I wasn’t a huge fan of this trade, as I think Varlamov is the most talented of the Caps’ goalies. I think that he could easily develop into an all-star goalie with the Avalanche, provided he stays healthy. He has got the talent to be that true No. 1 goalie that a team needs come playoff-time. However, upon further examination, I recognized that the Avalanche were REALLY bad last year. As in, they had the second-worst record in the league. So getting a first-round pick from them could net a top-five pick next year for the Caps. Not only would this be a huge asset if they were to keep the pick, but impressive trade bait for the deadline next year. You can build a deal for a big star (and now I’m talking about a Brad Richards-type player, not a Dennis Wideman-type player) around that pick at the deadline and maybe put the team over the edge. Besides, if Varlamov went to Russia and the KHL, the Caps would have been stuck with no compensation. Now they got two premium draft picks for the young Russian goalie. Good trade.
In more goalie news, I like the Tomas Vokoun signing, strictly based on the value that they paid. Any time you can get a goalie of Vokoun’s stature for backup goalie money (they got Vokoun for a fraction more than they were reported to be offering Varlamov), it’s a good deal. But that’s just from a collecting assets perspective. I’m not sure how exactly he fits in to the team’s plans next year. Is he the undisputed No. 1 entering the season? Is it another time-share with Neuvirth? If so, is this just another Varlamov-Theodore situation? There’s also the issue that this isn’t a playoff-tested veteran. Vokoun has played most of his years on bad teams. Now he has put up impressive numbers over that stretch, which is certainly admirable. But Vokoun is still something of an unknown come crunch time. And clearly some players just can’t come through in the clutch (as we have seen in the past two postseasons). Maybe they develop that skill over time, but Vokoun is already 35. How much time does he have to adjust to playoff hockey?
Not a big fan of the Joel Ward signing. McPhee even acknowledged that the team overpaid pretty significantly for Ward. I’d be okay if this were an established veteran, but if you look at Ward’s track record, he was basically a career minor leaguer until a couple of years ago. Then he burst onto the scene and, to his credit, he has had three solid seasons with the Predators and a couple of successful postseasons. He is another bigger, grittier player, which seems to be a theme for the Caps this offseason after the early acquisition of Troy Brouwer. But consider me a skeptic in giving a player with sucha limited track record this amount of money.
Roman Hamrlik is a solid addition as a veteran defenseman, who can do a little bit of everything. In the Caps defense corps, he will probably fill a stay-at-home defenseman role, but that’s not to say he is incompetent with the puck on his stick (looking at you Jeff Schultz). There has already been talk about pairing Hamrlik with Mike Green, which could be a dynamite combination. Green has been searching for a partner for most of his career. Clearly the Jeff Schultz partnership wasn’t ideal. I think Hamrlik’s veteran presence might just be the right fit.
Suddenly, Washington’s blue line is very crowded. I think you can pencil Green, Hamrlik, Alzner, Carlson and Wideman into the top-five. That leaves one spot in the lineup and maybe one more spot on the roster for a group that includes John Erskine, Tom Poti, Scott Hannan (although the odds that he is brought back fell precipitously once Hamrlik was signed) and top prospect Dmitri Orlov. If I had to guess, I would say Erskine gets the nod as the last defenseman on the squad.
It might have gone under the radar, but the signing of Jeff Halpern is a good one. He basically replaces Boyd Gordon, who might be younger and more talented at this stage, but Halpern signed significantly cheaper and can replace some of the things Gordon brings to the table (locker room presence, defensive-zone faceoff prowess, penalty killing, etc.). I think at this stage of his career, Gordon might be a stronger offensive player, but that clearly isn’t what the Capitals are valuing in their recent additions. McPhee has targeted gritty, battle-tested veterans who bring a physical presence on the ice, and positive influence in the locker room. And the former Capitals captain Halpern certainly fits this bill.
It will be interesting to see if this is the end of the moves (aside from re-signing Brouwer and Alzner, which everyone expects to happen), or if McPhee makes a big trade in a week or so, after some of the free agent market. After all of the chatter about a potential trade leading up to the start of free agency, and the Capitals precarious salary cap situation, I wouldn’t be surprised if McPhee pulls off a big deal (possibly involving Semin) in the next couple of weeks.
Harper's promotion raises questions
The Nats made an interesting decision this week to promote Bryce Harper straight to AA Harrisburg, bypassing high-A Potomac. Much has been made about how much this might have to do with the shoddy field conditions at Potomac, where the field floods quite easily, especially in the outfield. I think that this probably has something to do with it, but not as much as has been reported. I think another contributing factor is the current outfielders at Potomac. In Eury Perez, Destin Hood and J.P. Ramirez, the Nats have three prospects in the outfield. These aren’t just minor-league filler-players, but rather players that the Nats think could make it to the big leagues. However, none are really ready to make the next step to AA. Hood is having a nice season, and was an all-star for Potomac, but he is still relatively new to baseball after being a two-sport star in high school (he had committed to play football at Alabama), and rushing him to the next level might not be a wise decision at this stage of the game. On the other hand, Harrisburg’s outfield isn’t nearly as crowded. No important player’s development would have been stunted by the addition of Harper to the outfield.
Another interesting note about Harper’s promotion is how he has gone from hitting third and playing mainly right field to hitting seventh and playing left field. I like the move to have Harper learn all three outfield positions. Why limit yourself with such an athletic player? The more concerning development is why Harper is hitting seventh? I understand that it might be a bit of a slap in the face to current Harrisburg players to move this kid immediately into the prime spot in the lineup, but this is a business. Don’t worry about people’s feelings. I think the more likely concern is that Nationals management realizes it is a pretty big jump from low-A to AA. As much as they don’t want to admit, I think they know they are taking a gamble in having Harper skip high-A. By hitting Harper lower in the lineup, maybe they feel like they are hedging their bets.
Last thought on this topic: I saw a piece on CSN yesterday about the Harper promotion. Chick Hernandez sat down with Harper, and Harper talked about how he had gotten “bored” at low-A. If you look at his numbers, this would certainly explain his recent batting trend. After hitting around .340 or .350 most of the year, Harper’s average fell down below .320 before his promotion. I had chalked this up to the nagging injuries that Nationals management had claimed were affecting Harper. The news that Harper was bored is actually more concerning to me. Now Harper has taken his share of criticism: from the eye black to the now famous “kiss” incident, some in the media have been looking for reasons to label Harper as a punk. I haven’t been concerned by any of those incidents because, at the end of the day, all of those stemmed from an inner drive and competitiveness that you want out of your top athletes. Think Jordan would have been as good as he was if he wasn’t the most competitive guy on the floor? No way. If it were Jordan, he would have gotten upset with losing any game. Granted, one player can influence a game more in basketball than in baseball, but you see where I’m coming from. The idea that a top athlete could get bored with playing the game they love and dominating the competition is concerning. Especially after all we heard about leading up to Harper’s selection last spring was about how competitive he was and how hard he played the game. Let’s hope this is just another example of an 18-year-old being acting like an 18-year-old.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Battle of the Beltways
Today I want to look at the struggles of the Nationals’ counterpart in the area, the Baltimore Orioles. Now stay with me here, this will tie back into the Nationals, I promise.
A couple of years ago, I was really worried that the Orioles were going to sink the Nationals into obscurity. They had a number of talented prospects coming to the big leagues, and more on the way. Adam Jones had just blossomed into an All-Star, and looked like the true five-tool centerfielder, a rarity in today’s game. Every Nationals fan remembers the hoopla surrounding Stephen Strasburg’s debut. But not too much earlier there was similar (albeit less) hoopla for the debut of Matt Wieters. I remember watching that game, even though there was a Nationals game going on at the same time, for the simple reason that, from everything I had read online, this was a can’t-miss prospect. A phenom that you just HAD to see. I remember watching as there was a sell-out at Camden Yards, and more amazingly, it was a sellout comprised of Orioles fans, not Red Sox or Yankees fans. Brad Bergesen was having an excellent year, and looked to easily be a capable, back-of-the-rotation starter. Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman were tearing up the minor leagues, as experts hyped them as the new “Big 3” about to arrive on the major league scene. They had a dynamite young closer in Chris Ray. They had their franchise cornerstone in place and locked up long-term, in outfielder Nick Markakis. I could continue, but this is the DC Sports Stop, not the Baltimore Sports Stop.
I really haven’t paid attention to the Orioles since that time. And, by all accounts, they are that same mediocre, bottom of the AL East team. What happened? It may be an oversimplification, but I think it comes down to the fact that their prospects got to the major leagues, enjoyed a small sample of success, and haven’t gotten better since. All of these supposed “stars” are league-average players at best. Markakis and Ryan Zimmerman signed similar contracts at similar points in their career, the thought being that they brought similar value to a team. Well, as it turns out, Markakis is a league-average outfielder. That’s about it. Zimmerman, in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), was one of the better players in the entire National League last year. Wieters is a league-average catcher. Matusz was just demoted to AAA. Arrieta has nine wins, but has an ERA of 4.50, so I have a hunch that his W-L record is about to even out. Bergesen and Tillman bounce back and forth between AAA and the big leagues. Chris Ray is in Seattle…enough said. Even a managerial change hasn’t helped in their development. The Orioles are now looking to a new wave of prospects, led by LHP Zach Britton and future SS Manny Machado, to bring the team back to relevancy. But how long will that take? Another five years? In the mean time, they have plugged in stopgap players all over the field, from Vladimir Guerrero to J.J. Hardy to Mark Reynolds (wait Mark Reynolds just struck out since I started typing this entry…sorry I couldn’t resist).
My point is this: a team that doesn’t develop its prospects at the Major League level can be debilitating for a franchise. It’s one thing for a minor-league pipeline to bring prospects to the major league level. But that’s just step one. If you don’t have a staff in place at the major league level to help these players continue to develop, then you are stuck in baseball quicksand.
And now back to the Nationals (see you just had to read that nice 600-word intro for context). I love the fact that Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos have burst onto the scene and become solid contributors for the Nats (you could make the argument that Espinosa is more than just a solid contributor, and I wouldn’t have a problem with it). But before we project them as All-Stars for the next decade, let’s remember that there is an important “next step” that these players have to take, to rise out of the ranks of merely league-average. And they don’t have to look that far to see examples of how difficult it can be. Ian Desmond was phenomenal last year with the bat, hitting at a very respectable mark, gradually rising up in the batting order, and looking like a force for years to come. From all accounts, the Nats balked at any trade proposal this offseason that required Desmond, that’s how much they valued his potential. And yet, here he is stuck hovering around .230 with very average power numbers. He’s a candidate to bat near the bottom of the order on days when Jerry Hairston and/or Brian Bixler aren’t in the lineup (don’t even get me started on that lineup for the finale of the Angels series). Yes, his defense has improved, but there are a lot of good defensive shortstops in baseball. Alex Cora is a pretty good defensive shortstop. But Alex Cora isn’t going to be starting for anyone in a winning capacity. He’s a utility guy. And with the Nats selecting Anthony Rendon in the draft, suddenly there are four players (Zimmerman, Desmond, Espinosa and Rendon) for three spots (3B, SS, 2B). Granted, we are a few years away from that point, but people are already beginning to wonder if Desmond is the odd-man out, a player who might be better suited for a utility role.
Another guy you could argue falls into this category is Roger Bernadina. The Nats have given him ample opportunities the last two seasons to grab one of the outfield jobs. He has all of the tools. Every Nats fan who has watched a moderate amount of games has seen flashes of his speed, power, outfield arm (how about that throw in the Angels’ finale, gunning the runner at second on a line from left-center? Great throw), and ability to hit for average. But he just can’t seem to put it together. At least, not to any degree that is higher than a .280 average with a few home runs. In fact, his numbers are comparable to Nick Markakis, who we have already established as a league-average outfielder.
There are probably other examples, but those were the ones that screamed at me. The point is that the hay isn’t in the barn just because these prospects have made the major leagues. Let’s be patient and watch to see if these players can take that next step that will be so critical for the success of this franchise.
Caps notes
Free agency starts today, and as quickly as deals are happening, most of what I’m writing now could be obsolete in a couple of hours. However, here are a couple of quick thoughts on some of the Caps free agents.
Jason Arnott- don’t expect to see him back. I think his price tag won’t be worth the production that he brings. Let’s face it: the guy is old at this stage of his career.
Matt Bradley- love the guy, but seems to be a very replaceable player on the fourth line. Jay Beagle and others are waiting to step in if (and it appears when) Bradley leaves via free agency.
Boyd Gordon- I think similar to Brooks Laich, this is a glue guy that should be maintained. He does a little bit of everything, is one of the better faceoff guys on the Caps (which became much more important after Dave Steckel was shipped out at last year’s trade deadline), and is one of the longest tenured players in that dressing room. I think he is a player that you bring back and plug on your fourth line for the next five years (assuming he can stay healthy, which is a legitimate concern with Gordon).
Scott Hannan- This one’s tough. There is no denying that he had a positive impact on the Caps defense corps when he was acquired. He is a “talker” on the ice, which apparently something the Caps were lacking (someone is going to have explain that more to me. How is it so hard to open your mouth when you are playing? I feel like this could be an acquired skill. But I digress). However, the Caps have a solid foundation of defensemen, and Dmitri Orlov is coming, another left-handed, puck-moving defenseman. I think this decision will probably come down to Hannan’s price-tag, as well as the Caps long-term plan for Mike Green. If they are going to trade Green, I think you need to bring Hannan back. If not, I think he could be expendable.
Marco Sturm- You’re kidding right? No way.
And I would be remiss if I didn’t talk about the supposed “done-deal” of Semyon Varlamov going to the KHL. I was listening to Alan May, the Caps analyst for CSN, talk about this yesterday and he noted how this would be a huge step backward for Varlamov if he went to the KHL, which May considered the third-best league in the world, behind the NHL and the Swedish Elite League. I think it would be pretty cowardly if Varlamov went through with this plan, just because the Caps won’t give him No. 1 goaltender money (which he doesn’t deserve at this stage of his career). If he makes the decision that he would rather take more money in Russia, then stay in America and compete for the starting job, then I say good riddance. That’s a player that you are never going to be able to count on in the playoffs to be mentally tough enough to win you games. And the Caps have solid options in Neuvirth and Holtby, so it’s not like Varlamov has them over a barrel. That being said, I think if he can put it together, Varlamov is the most talented of the bunch. I think if he really bought in, dedicated himself, and found some magic potion that would allow him to stay healthy, he could be an All-Star in this league, especially with the Capitals continuing to commit to a more defensive-oriented style. So, the ball is in your court Varly.
Tour de France Predictions!!!!!!
Yes it’s that time again. The best three weeks of the year (just kidding, but it’s up there). The Tour de France kicks off tomorrow with a treacherous stage. The drama will continue to be about the Contador-Schleck battle, as well as Contador’s innocence (or lack thereof) regarding last year’s Tour. He tested positive, but somehow wiggled his way out of punishment. I’ll spare you the details, because I’m sure everyone is sick of reading about doping cyclists. I know I am. So without further adieu, my predictions for the top-five of this year’s Tour.
5. Frank Schleck- supporting his brother, he sneaks into the top-five.
4. Chris Horner- the American’s end-of-career Renaissance continues. Using the support of Leipheimer and Kloden, he turns in his best career finish at the TdF.
3. Jurgen Van Den Broeck – I think this is the time for his big breakthrough
2. Alberto Contador
1. Andy Schleck- Yep, I think it’s his time. Maybe Contador gets worried about all of the doping allegations. Maybe Contador gets tired from already having raced the Giro d’Italia. More realistically, I think Schleck has a stronger team, and if his chain doesn’t come off last year, that race was a dead heat. I think Schleck gets the edge this year and brings one home for Luxembourg.
If you’re sick of my Tour ramblings, buckle up, because I’m sure there will be more to follow in the upcoming weeks.
Wimbledon Final Prediction
I think Djokovic wins his first Wimbledon championship, no matter if it’s against Murray or Nadal. He wouldn’t have lost a match at all this year if it weren’t for one unbelievable match from the best player in the history of tennis (Roger Federer). So I think it’s his time. Plus, Murray can’t possibly win. That would be awful to see the Brits finally get that monkey off their back.
A couple of years ago, I was really worried that the Orioles were going to sink the Nationals into obscurity. They had a number of talented prospects coming to the big leagues, and more on the way. Adam Jones had just blossomed into an All-Star, and looked like the true five-tool centerfielder, a rarity in today’s game. Every Nationals fan remembers the hoopla surrounding Stephen Strasburg’s debut. But not too much earlier there was similar (albeit less) hoopla for the debut of Matt Wieters. I remember watching that game, even though there was a Nationals game going on at the same time, for the simple reason that, from everything I had read online, this was a can’t-miss prospect. A phenom that you just HAD to see. I remember watching as there was a sell-out at Camden Yards, and more amazingly, it was a sellout comprised of Orioles fans, not Red Sox or Yankees fans. Brad Bergesen was having an excellent year, and looked to easily be a capable, back-of-the-rotation starter. Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman were tearing up the minor leagues, as experts hyped them as the new “Big 3” about to arrive on the major league scene. They had a dynamite young closer in Chris Ray. They had their franchise cornerstone in place and locked up long-term, in outfielder Nick Markakis. I could continue, but this is the DC Sports Stop, not the Baltimore Sports Stop.
I really haven’t paid attention to the Orioles since that time. And, by all accounts, they are that same mediocre, bottom of the AL East team. What happened? It may be an oversimplification, but I think it comes down to the fact that their prospects got to the major leagues, enjoyed a small sample of success, and haven’t gotten better since. All of these supposed “stars” are league-average players at best. Markakis and Ryan Zimmerman signed similar contracts at similar points in their career, the thought being that they brought similar value to a team. Well, as it turns out, Markakis is a league-average outfielder. That’s about it. Zimmerman, in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), was one of the better players in the entire National League last year. Wieters is a league-average catcher. Matusz was just demoted to AAA. Arrieta has nine wins, but has an ERA of 4.50, so I have a hunch that his W-L record is about to even out. Bergesen and Tillman bounce back and forth between AAA and the big leagues. Chris Ray is in Seattle…enough said. Even a managerial change hasn’t helped in their development. The Orioles are now looking to a new wave of prospects, led by LHP Zach Britton and future SS Manny Machado, to bring the team back to relevancy. But how long will that take? Another five years? In the mean time, they have plugged in stopgap players all over the field, from Vladimir Guerrero to J.J. Hardy to Mark Reynolds (wait Mark Reynolds just struck out since I started typing this entry…sorry I couldn’t resist).
My point is this: a team that doesn’t develop its prospects at the Major League level can be debilitating for a franchise. It’s one thing for a minor-league pipeline to bring prospects to the major league level. But that’s just step one. If you don’t have a staff in place at the major league level to help these players continue to develop, then you are stuck in baseball quicksand.
And now back to the Nationals (see you just had to read that nice 600-word intro for context). I love the fact that Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos have burst onto the scene and become solid contributors for the Nats (you could make the argument that Espinosa is more than just a solid contributor, and I wouldn’t have a problem with it). But before we project them as All-Stars for the next decade, let’s remember that there is an important “next step” that these players have to take, to rise out of the ranks of merely league-average. And they don’t have to look that far to see examples of how difficult it can be. Ian Desmond was phenomenal last year with the bat, hitting at a very respectable mark, gradually rising up in the batting order, and looking like a force for years to come. From all accounts, the Nats balked at any trade proposal this offseason that required Desmond, that’s how much they valued his potential. And yet, here he is stuck hovering around .230 with very average power numbers. He’s a candidate to bat near the bottom of the order on days when Jerry Hairston and/or Brian Bixler aren’t in the lineup (don’t even get me started on that lineup for the finale of the Angels series). Yes, his defense has improved, but there are a lot of good defensive shortstops in baseball. Alex Cora is a pretty good defensive shortstop. But Alex Cora isn’t going to be starting for anyone in a winning capacity. He’s a utility guy. And with the Nats selecting Anthony Rendon in the draft, suddenly there are four players (Zimmerman, Desmond, Espinosa and Rendon) for three spots (3B, SS, 2B). Granted, we are a few years away from that point, but people are already beginning to wonder if Desmond is the odd-man out, a player who might be better suited for a utility role.
Another guy you could argue falls into this category is Roger Bernadina. The Nats have given him ample opportunities the last two seasons to grab one of the outfield jobs. He has all of the tools. Every Nats fan who has watched a moderate amount of games has seen flashes of his speed, power, outfield arm (how about that throw in the Angels’ finale, gunning the runner at second on a line from left-center? Great throw), and ability to hit for average. But he just can’t seem to put it together. At least, not to any degree that is higher than a .280 average with a few home runs. In fact, his numbers are comparable to Nick Markakis, who we have already established as a league-average outfielder.
There are probably other examples, but those were the ones that screamed at me. The point is that the hay isn’t in the barn just because these prospects have made the major leagues. Let’s be patient and watch to see if these players can take that next step that will be so critical for the success of this franchise.
Caps notes
Free agency starts today, and as quickly as deals are happening, most of what I’m writing now could be obsolete in a couple of hours. However, here are a couple of quick thoughts on some of the Caps free agents.
Jason Arnott- don’t expect to see him back. I think his price tag won’t be worth the production that he brings. Let’s face it: the guy is old at this stage of his career.
Matt Bradley- love the guy, but seems to be a very replaceable player on the fourth line. Jay Beagle and others are waiting to step in if (and it appears when) Bradley leaves via free agency.
Boyd Gordon- I think similar to Brooks Laich, this is a glue guy that should be maintained. He does a little bit of everything, is one of the better faceoff guys on the Caps (which became much more important after Dave Steckel was shipped out at last year’s trade deadline), and is one of the longest tenured players in that dressing room. I think he is a player that you bring back and plug on your fourth line for the next five years (assuming he can stay healthy, which is a legitimate concern with Gordon).
Scott Hannan- This one’s tough. There is no denying that he had a positive impact on the Caps defense corps when he was acquired. He is a “talker” on the ice, which apparently something the Caps were lacking (someone is going to have explain that more to me. How is it so hard to open your mouth when you are playing? I feel like this could be an acquired skill. But I digress). However, the Caps have a solid foundation of defensemen, and Dmitri Orlov is coming, another left-handed, puck-moving defenseman. I think this decision will probably come down to Hannan’s price-tag, as well as the Caps long-term plan for Mike Green. If they are going to trade Green, I think you need to bring Hannan back. If not, I think he could be expendable.
Marco Sturm- You’re kidding right? No way.
And I would be remiss if I didn’t talk about the supposed “done-deal” of Semyon Varlamov going to the KHL. I was listening to Alan May, the Caps analyst for CSN, talk about this yesterday and he noted how this would be a huge step backward for Varlamov if he went to the KHL, which May considered the third-best league in the world, behind the NHL and the Swedish Elite League. I think it would be pretty cowardly if Varlamov went through with this plan, just because the Caps won’t give him No. 1 goaltender money (which he doesn’t deserve at this stage of his career). If he makes the decision that he would rather take more money in Russia, then stay in America and compete for the starting job, then I say good riddance. That’s a player that you are never going to be able to count on in the playoffs to be mentally tough enough to win you games. And the Caps have solid options in Neuvirth and Holtby, so it’s not like Varlamov has them over a barrel. That being said, I think if he can put it together, Varlamov is the most talented of the bunch. I think if he really bought in, dedicated himself, and found some magic potion that would allow him to stay healthy, he could be an All-Star in this league, especially with the Capitals continuing to commit to a more defensive-oriented style. So, the ball is in your court Varly.
Tour de France Predictions!!!!!!
Yes it’s that time again. The best three weeks of the year (just kidding, but it’s up there). The Tour de France kicks off tomorrow with a treacherous stage. The drama will continue to be about the Contador-Schleck battle, as well as Contador’s innocence (or lack thereof) regarding last year’s Tour. He tested positive, but somehow wiggled his way out of punishment. I’ll spare you the details, because I’m sure everyone is sick of reading about doping cyclists. I know I am. So without further adieu, my predictions for the top-five of this year’s Tour.
5. Frank Schleck- supporting his brother, he sneaks into the top-five.
4. Chris Horner- the American’s end-of-career Renaissance continues. Using the support of Leipheimer and Kloden, he turns in his best career finish at the TdF.
3. Jurgen Van Den Broeck – I think this is the time for his big breakthrough
2. Alberto Contador
1. Andy Schleck- Yep, I think it’s his time. Maybe Contador gets worried about all of the doping allegations. Maybe Contador gets tired from already having raced the Giro d’Italia. More realistically, I think Schleck has a stronger team, and if his chain doesn’t come off last year, that race was a dead heat. I think Schleck gets the edge this year and brings one home for Luxembourg.
If you’re sick of my Tour ramblings, buckle up, because I’m sure there will be more to follow in the upcoming weeks.
Wimbledon Final Prediction
I think Djokovic wins his first Wimbledon championship, no matter if it’s against Murray or Nadal. He wouldn’t have lost a match at all this year if it weren’t for one unbelievable match from the best player in the history of tennis (Roger Federer). So I think it’s his time. Plus, Murray can’t possibly win. That would be awful to see the Brits finally get that monkey off their back.
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